Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-01-20

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.38	0.63	47507	7044	40363	100
Day 1 forecast	-0.39	0.63	47507	7246	40149	112
Day 4 forecast	-0.39	0.64	47507	7349	40041	117
Day 7 forecast	-0.38	0.63	47507	7205	40159	143
Day 10 forecast	-0.4	0.65	47507	7726	39628	153

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.009	0.117	0.098	0.021	0.004	0.004
	c2	0	0.004	0.144	0.169	0.018	0.001	0
	c3	0	0	0.008	0.117	0.079	0.005	0.001
	c4	0	0	0	0.02	0.11	0.024	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.008	0.027	0.005
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.009	0.117	0.099	0.022	0.004	0.004
	c2	0	0.004	0.143	0.168	0.019	0.002	0
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.116	0.08	0.005	0.001
	c4	0	0	0	0.02	0.105	0.024	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.01	0.026	0.004
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.009	0.114	0.097	0.022	0.004	0.003
	c2	0	0.004	0.144	0.166	0.019	0.001	0
	c3	0	0	0.011	0.119	0.082	0.005	0.001
	c4	0	0	0	0.021	0.1	0.023	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.014	0.027	0.004
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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