Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-01-13

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.39   0.64   46730 6801 39821 108
Day 1 forecast -0.39   0.65   46730 6939 39679 112
Day 4 forecast -0.4   0.65   46730 7105 39514 111
Day 7 forecast -0.38   0.64   46730 6749 39836 145
Day 10 forecast -0.41   0.67   46730 7471 39156 103

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.013 0.139 0.093 0.018 0.005 0.005
c2 0 0.003 0.118 0.187 0.02 0.002 0
c3 0 0 0.01 0.113 0.079 0.003 0
c4 0 0 0.002 0.029 0.101 0.023 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.009 0.02 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.013 0.137 0.093 0.018 0.005 0.005
c2 0 0.003 0.12 0.185 0.019 0.002 0
c3 0 0 0.01 0.114 0.084 0.004 0
c4 0 0 0.002 0.029 0.095 0.023 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.011 0.02 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.012 0.13 0.089 0.018 0.005 0.005
c2 0 0.004 0.126 0.185 0.019 0.002 0
c3 0 0 0.011 0.116 0.085 0.004 0
c4 0 0 0.001 0.03 0.093 0.021 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.013 0.022 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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