Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-01-13

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.39	0.64	46730	6801	39821	108
Day 1 forecast	-0.39	0.65	46730	6939	39679	112
Day 4 forecast	-0.4	0.65	46730	7105	39514	111
Day 7 forecast	-0.38	0.64	46730	6749	39836	145
Day 10 forecast	-0.41	0.67	46730	7471	39156	103

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.013	0.139	0.093	0.018	0.005	0.005
	c2	0	0.003	0.118	0.187	0.02	0.002	0
	c3	0	0	0.01	0.113	0.079	0.003	0
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.029	0.101	0.023	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.02	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.013	0.137	0.093	0.018	0.005	0.005
	c2	0	0.003	0.12	0.185	0.019	0.002	0
	c3	0	0	0.01	0.114	0.084	0.004	0
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.029	0.095	0.023	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.011	0.02	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.012	0.13	0.089	0.018	0.005	0.005
	c2	0	0.004	0.126	0.185	0.019	0.002	0
	c3	0	0	0.011	0.116	0.085	0.004	0
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.03	0.093	0.021	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.013	0.022	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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