Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-01-06

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.38   0.62   45219 6836 38302 81
Day 1 forecast -0.38   0.63   45219 6977 38166 76
Day 4 forecast -0.39   0.63   45219 7147 37996 76
Day 7 forecast -0.37   0.62   45219 6777 38335 107
Day 10 forecast -0.39   0.64   45219 7501 37622 96

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.023 0.167 0.09 0.013 0.004 0.003
c2 0 0.003 0.125 0.153 0.019 0.002 0
c3 0 0 0.012 0.122 0.077 0.005 0
c4 0 0 0.001 0.031 0.095 0.019 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0 0.009 0.019 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.023 0.165 0.092 0.014 0.004 0.003
c2 0 0.004 0.127 0.15 0.019 0.002 0
c3 0 0 0.013 0.124 0.079 0.006 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.03 0.093 0.019 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0 0.009 0.018 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.021 0.156 0.087 0.013 0.004 0.003
c2 0 0.005 0.135 0.152 0.02 0.002 0
c3 0 0 0.014 0.126 0.079 0.006 0
c4 0 0 0.001 0.031 0.093 0.02 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0 0.009 0.018 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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