Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-12-30

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.34	0.56	38437	5856	32498	83
Day 1 forecast	-0.34	0.57	38437	5929	32410	98
Day 4 forecast	-0.35	0.57	38437	6092	32250	95
Day 7 forecast	-0.33	0.56	38437	5717	32602	118
Day 10 forecast	-0.33	0.57	38437	5849	32477	111

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.027	0.195	0.087	0.011	0.002	0.001
	c2	0	0.005	0.114	0.122	0.013	0.001	0
	c3	0	0	0.018	0.146	0.069	0.003	0
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.03	0.096	0.023	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.018	0.005
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.026	0.189	0.086	0.011	0.002	0.001
	c2	0	0.005	0.119	0.121	0.013	0.001	0
	c3	0	0	0.019	0.147	0.072	0.003	0
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.031	0.094	0.024	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.017	0.005
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.025	0.176	0.082	0.01	0.002	0.001
	c2	0	0.007	0.13	0.122	0.014	0.001	0
	c3	0	0	0.021	0.149	0.072	0.004	0
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.031	0.094	0.024	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.008	0.017	0.005
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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