Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-12-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.33   0.59   38852 5938 32805 109
Day 1 forecast -0.33   0.59   38852 5906 32844 102
Day 4 forecast -0.33   0.6   38852 6072 32682 98
Day 7 forecast -0.31   0.59   38852 5569 33170 113
Day 10 forecast -0.33   0.61   38852 6335 32415 102

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.039 0.226 0.074 0.012 0.003 0.004
c2 0 0.001 0.088 0.109 0.012 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0 0.016 0.138 0.072 0.004 0
c4 0 0 0.002 0.051 0.098 0.018 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.012 0.015 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.039 0.221 0.072 0.011 0.003 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.092 0.111 0.013 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0 0.018 0.136 0.071 0.004 0
c4 0 0 0.002 0.053 0.098 0.02 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.011 0.013 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.039 0.203 0.068 0.011 0.003 0.003
c2 0 0.002 0.108 0.113 0.014 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0 0.019 0.136 0.071 0.004 0
c4 0 0 0.002 0.056 0.096 0.02 0
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.013 0.013 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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