Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-12-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.33	0.59	38852	5938	32805	109
Day 1 forecast	-0.33	0.59	38852	5906	32844	102
Day 4 forecast	-0.33	0.6	38852	6072	32682	98
Day 7 forecast	-0.31	0.59	38852	5569	33170	113
Day 10 forecast	-0.33	0.61	38852	6335	32415	102

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.039	0.226	0.074	0.012	0.003	0.004
	c2	0	0.001	0.088	0.109	0.012	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.016	0.138	0.072	0.004	0
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.051	0.098	0.018	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.012	0.015	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.039	0.221	0.072	0.011	0.003	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.092	0.111	0.013	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.018	0.136	0.071	0.004	0
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.053	0.098	0.02	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.011	0.013	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.039	0.203	0.068	0.011	0.003	0.003
	c2	0	0.002	0.108	0.113	0.014	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.019	0.136	0.071	0.004	0
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.056	0.096	0.02	0
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.013	0.013	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh Fri 31 Dec 2021 02:25:41 AM UTC on arcval