Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-11-25

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.33   0.61   36324 7806 28374 144
Day 1 forecast -0.35   0.62   36324 8044 28143 137
Day 4 forecast -0.36   0.63   36324 8344 27846 134
Day 7 forecast -0.34   0.61   36324 7759 28424 141
Day 10 forecast -0.42   0.65   36324 9660 26557 107

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.061 0.242 0.068 0.009 0.002 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.099 0.089 0.007 0.001 0
c3 0 0 0.029 0.175 0.043 0.002 0
c4 0 0 0.005 0.044 0.092 0.008 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.011 0.004 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.061 0.244 0.069 0.009 0.002 0.003
c2 0 0.002 0.098 0.092 0.007 0.001 0
c3 0 0 0.028 0.174 0.049 0.002 0
c4 0 0 0.005 0.041 0.088 0.007 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.009 0.004 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.061 0.24 0.067 0.009 0.002 0.003
c2 0 0.002 0.1 0.093 0.007 0.001 0
c3 0 0 0.03 0.175 0.051 0.002 0
c4 0 0 0.005 0.042 0.087 0.008 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.008 0.004 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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