Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-11-18

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.38	0.57	33860	7262	26530	68
Day 1 forecast	-0.41	0.58	33860	7729	26074	57
Day 4 forecast	-0.42	0.59	33860	8053	25765	42
Day 7 forecast	-0.4	0.58	33860	7598	26194	68
Day 10 forecast	-0.61	0.73	33860	11725	22105	30

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0
	c1	0	0.065	0.236	0.059	0.009	0.002	0.001
	c2	0	0.001	0.089	0.111	0.007	0	0
	c3	0	0	0.014	0.174	0.089	0.004	0
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.026	0.086	0.017	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.003	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0
	c1	0	0.065	0.24	0.061	0.009	0.002	0.001
	c2	0	0.001	0.087	0.123	0.008	0	0
	c3	0	0	0.013	0.165	0.104	0.005	0
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.022	0.073	0.019	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0
	c1	0	0.065	0.239	0.06	0.008	0.001	0.001
	c2	0	0.001	0.087	0.128	0.01	0	0
	c3	0	0	0.012	0.159	0.106	0.005	0
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.024	0.069	0.019	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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