Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2021-11-11
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.42 | 0.58 | 30747 | 7054 | 23622 | 71 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.51 | 0.64 | 30747 | 8264 | 22423 | 60 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.54 | 0.67 | 30747 | 8881 | 21812 | 54 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.53 | 0.66 | 30747 | 8673 | 22006 | 68 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.73 | 0.83 | 30747 | 14610 | 16083 | 54 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.069 | 0.239 | 0.053 | 0.007 | 0.001 | 0.001 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.101 | 0.171 | 0.018 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.022 | 0.147 | 0.11 | 0.005 | 0.001 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.013 | 0.029 | 0.008 | 0 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.266 | 0.065 | 0.007 | 0.001 | 0.001 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.074 | 0.216 | 0.042 | 0.002 | 0 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.023 | 0.097 | 0.109 | 0.01 | 0.001 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.007 | 0.002 | 0 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.277 | 0.073 | 0.007 | 0.001 | 0.001 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.063 | 0.219 | 0.054 | 0.002 | 0 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.022 | 0.087 | 0.101 | 0.011 | 0.001 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.005 | 0.002 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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