Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2021-11-04
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.57 | 0.71 | 28664 | 9495 | 19094 | 75 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.66 | 0.78 | 28664 | 11972 | 16612 | 80 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.69 | 0.81 | 28664 | 13094 | 15488 | 82 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.67 | 0.79 | 28664 | 12483 | 16093 | 88 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.7 | 0.82 | 28664 | 13400 | 15188 | 76 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.083 | 0.301 | 0.103 | 0.015 | 0.002 | 0.001 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.057 | 0.194 | 0.054 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.033 | 0.084 | 0.063 | 0.007 | 0.001 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.083 | 0.324 | 0.159 | 0.031 | 0.002 | 0.001 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.033 | 0.153 | 0.056 | 0.003 | 0 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.031 | 0.069 | 0.044 | 0.005 | 0 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.083 | 0.331 | 0.172 | 0.033 | 0.002 | 0.001 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.027 | 0.143 | 0.06 | 0.004 | 0 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.03 | 0.065 | 0.038 | 0.004 | 0 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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