Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-11-04

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.57   0.71   28664 9495 19094 75
Day 1 forecast -0.66   0.78   28664 11972 16612 80
Day 4 forecast -0.69   0.81   28664 13094 15488 82
Day 7 forecast -0.67   0.79   28664 12483 16093 88
Day 10 forecast -0.7   0.82   28664 13400 15188 76

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.083 0.301 0.103 0.015 0.002 0.001
c2 0 0 0.057 0.194 0.054 0.001 0
c3 0 0.001 0.033 0.084 0.063 0.007 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.083 0.324 0.159 0.031 0.002 0.001
c2 0 0 0.033 0.153 0.056 0.003 0
c3 0 0.001 0.031 0.069 0.044 0.005 0
c4 0 0 0.002 0.001 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.083 0.331 0.172 0.033 0.002 0.001
c2 0 0 0.027 0.143 0.06 0.004 0
c3 0 0.001 0.03 0.065 0.038 0.004 0
c4 0 0 0.003 0.002 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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