Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-05-27

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.53	0.82	18958	2884	15926	148
Day 1 forecast	-0.53	0.83	18958	2882	15929	147
Day 4 forecast	-0.53	0.83	18958	2868	15945	145
Day 7 forecast	-0.53	0.83	18958	2918	15893	147
Day 10 forecast	-0.53	0.82	18958	2856	15960	142

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.001	0.011	0.022	0.015	0.003	0.004
	c2	0	0.001	0.014	0.055	0.046	0.008	0.005
	c3	0	0.001	0.005	0.059	0.155	0.123	0.035
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.055	0.096	0.043
	c5	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.049	0.098	0.067
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.001	0.011	0.022	0.015	0.003	0.004
	c2	0	0.001	0.013	0.055	0.046	0.008	0.005
	c3	0	0.001	0.005	0.059	0.156	0.123	0.036
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.008	0.054	0.095	0.041
	c5	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.049	0.098	0.067
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.005	0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.001	0.011	0.023	0.016	0.003	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.013	0.053	0.047	0.008	0.005
	c3	0	0.001	0.005	0.06	0.155	0.125	0.036
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.052	0.092	0.041
	c5	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.051	0.099	0.067
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.005	0.004

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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