Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-05-20

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.55	0.86	35438	4689	30603	146
Day 1 forecast	-0.55	0.86	35438	4714	30586	138
Day 4 forecast	-0.55	0.86	35438	4735	30567	136
Day 7 forecast	-0.56	0.86	35438	4700	30595	143
Day 10 forecast	-0.55	0.86	35438	4605	30690	143

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.018	0.045	0.024	0.006	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.014	0.081	0.062	0.012	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.087	0.197	0.089	0.013
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.044	0.09	0.025
	c5	0	0	0	0.003	0.029	0.087	0.038
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.003	0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.018	0.045	0.024	0.006	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.014	0.081	0.062	0.012	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.087	0.197	0.09	0.014
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.044	0.089	0.024
	c5	0	0	0	0.003	0.029	0.087	0.038
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.004	0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.018	0.046	0.025	0.006	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.014	0.082	0.061	0.011	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.085	0.199	0.09	0.014
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.043	0.09	0.025
	c5	0	0	0	0.003	0.03	0.087	0.038
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.003	0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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