Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-05-06

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.52	0.76	42948	5440	37307	201
Day 1 forecast	-0.52	0.76	42948	5442	37301	205
Day 4 forecast	-0.52	0.76	42948	5495	37253	200
Day 7 forecast	-0.52	0.76	42948	5448	37294	206
Day 10 forecast	-0.52	0.77	42948	5566	37173	209

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.023	0.064	0.025	0.006	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.013	0.104	0.059	0.014	0.006
	c3	0	0.001	0.006	0.089	0.217	0.058	0.009
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.057	0.082	0.011
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.033	0.074	0.026
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.023	0.064	0.026	0.005	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.013	0.103	0.059	0.014	0.006
	c3	0	0.001	0.005	0.089	0.218	0.059	0.009
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.056	0.081	0.011
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.033	0.075	0.026
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.023	0.063	0.025	0.005	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.013	0.104	0.059	0.014	0.006
	c3	0	0.001	0.006	0.09	0.219	0.059	0.009
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.056	0.081	0.011
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.033	0.074	0.026
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh Fri May 21 02:06:16 UTC 2021 on arcmfcval