Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-04-29

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.51   0.77   43858 6017 37727 114
Day 1 forecast -0.51   0.77   43858 6024 37721 113
Day 4 forecast -0.51   0.77   43858 6047 37699 112
Day 7 forecast -0.51   0.77   43858 5932 37786 140
Day 10 forecast -0.51   0.77   43858 5825 37900 133

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.03 0.073 0.023 0.004 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.014 0.105 0.055 0.011 0.006
c3 0 0 0.004 0.086 0.214 0.055 0.006
c4 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.07 0.076 0.009
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.035 0.074 0.021
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.03 0.073 0.023 0.004 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.015 0.106 0.055 0.011 0.006
c3 0 0 0.004 0.086 0.215 0.055 0.006
c4 0 0 0 0.006 0.069 0.076 0.009
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.036 0.074 0.021
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.03 0.072 0.022 0.004 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.014 0.106 0.056 0.011 0.006
c3 0 0 0.004 0.086 0.216 0.057 0.006
c4 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.067 0.073 0.009
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.036 0.073 0.021
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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