Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-04-22

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.45	0.82	45828	5958	39739	131
Day 1 forecast	-0.45	0.81	45828	5920	39770	138
Day 4 forecast	-0.45	0.81	45828	5888	39793	147
Day 7 forecast	-0.45	0.81	45828	5836	39843	149
Day 10 forecast	-0.46	0.82	45828	5696	39951	181

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.031	0.075	0.02	0.003	0.003
	c2	0	0.002	0.02	0.113	0.049	0.009	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.007	0.128	0.172	0.04	0.006
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.015	0.108	0.059	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.03	0.063	0.016
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.004	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.031	0.075	0.02	0.003	0.003
	c2	0	0.002	0.02	0.113	0.048	0.008	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.008	0.128	0.176	0.041	0.007
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.015	0.106	0.062	0.008
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.028	0.059	0.016
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.004	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.03	0.072	0.02	0.003	0.003
	c2	0	0.002	0.02	0.114	0.048	0.008	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.13	0.182	0.043	0.007
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.014	0.099	0.061	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.029	0.058	0.015
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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