Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-04-15

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.37	0.69	46043	5847	40042	154
Day 1 forecast	-0.37	0.69	46043	5755	40126	162
Day 4 forecast	-0.38	0.69	46043	5818	40051	174
Day 7 forecast	-0.37	0.69	46043	5644	40224	175
Day 10 forecast	-0.37	0.68	46043	5421	40434	188

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.042	0.079	0.022	0.003	0.001
	c2	0	0.001	0.027	0.114	0.039	0.006	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.022	0.183	0.114	0.024	0.006
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.024	0.129	0.047	0.008
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.022	0.051	0.012
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.008

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.042	0.08	0.022	0.003	0.001
	c2	0	0.001	0.027	0.113	0.038	0.006	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.023	0.185	0.121	0.024	0.007
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.023	0.124	0.051	0.008
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.021	0.047	0.011
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.008

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.041	0.078	0.021	0.003	0.001
	c2	0	0.001	0.027	0.112	0.038	0.005	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.023	0.188	0.124	0.025	0.007
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.023	0.122	0.051	0.008
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.021	0.047	0.011
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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