Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-04-08

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.36	0.73	46210	6169	39871	170
Day 1 forecast	-0.35	0.72	46210	6008	40025	177
Day 4 forecast	-0.36	0.72	46210	6012	40019	179
Day 7 forecast	-0.35	0.72	46210	5819	40206	185
Day 10 forecast	-0.35	0.71	46210	5621	40409	180

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.052	0.09	0.021	0.004	0.002
	c2	0	0.001	0.039	0.12	0.034	0.007	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.025	0.212	0.08	0.008	0.005
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.026	0.131	0.036	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.018	0.047	0.013
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.004	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.05	0.086	0.02	0.004	0.002
	c2	0	0.001	0.041	0.127	0.036	0.008	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.025	0.21	0.079	0.008	0.006
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.025	0.13	0.037	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.017	0.045	0.013
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.048	0.082	0.019	0.003	0.002
	c2	0	0.001	0.042	0.125	0.038	0.008	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.027	0.215	0.08	0.008	0.006
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.025	0.129	0.038	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.018	0.044	0.013
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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