Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-04-08

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.36   0.73   46210 6169 39871 170
Day 1 forecast -0.35   0.72   46210 6008 40025 177
Day 4 forecast -0.36   0.72   46210 6012 40019 179
Day 7 forecast -0.35   0.72   46210 5819 40206 185
Day 10 forecast -0.35   0.71   46210 5621 40409 180

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.052 0.09 0.021 0.004 0.002
c2 0 0.001 0.039 0.12 0.034 0.007 0.004
c3 0 0 0.025 0.212 0.08 0.008 0.005
c4 0 0 0.001 0.026 0.131 0.036 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.018 0.047 0.013
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.004 0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.05 0.086 0.02 0.004 0.002
c2 0 0.001 0.041 0.127 0.036 0.008 0.004
c3 0 0 0.025 0.21 0.079 0.008 0.006
c4 0 0 0.001 0.025 0.13 0.037 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.017 0.045 0.013
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.004 0.048 0.082 0.019 0.003 0.002
c2 0 0.001 0.042 0.125 0.038 0.008 0.005
c3 0 0 0.027 0.215 0.08 0.008 0.006
c4 0 0 0.001 0.025 0.129 0.038 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.018 0.044 0.013
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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