Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-04-01

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.39	0.72	47695	6706	40880	109
Day 1 forecast	-0.39	0.71	47695	6506	41076	113
Day 4 forecast	-0.39	0.71	47695	6471	41113	111
Day 7 forecast	-0.38	0.71	47695	6411	41151	133
Day 10 forecast	-0.43	0.72	47695	6583	41001	111

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.049	0.095	0.023	0.006	0.006
	c2	0	0.001	0.05	0.132	0.033	0.009	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.018	0.203	0.072	0.01	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.021	0.135	0.037	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.013	0.041	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.009

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.046	0.087	0.021	0.006	0.006
	c2	0	0.001	0.053	0.144	0.035	0.009	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.018	0.199	0.074	0.011	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.021	0.133	0.037	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.012	0.04	0.018
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.003	0.008

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.044	0.083	0.021	0.006	0.006
	c2	0	0.001	0.054	0.143	0.034	0.009	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.019	0.202	0.077	0.011	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.021	0.128	0.037	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.015	0.039	0.018
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.008

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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