Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-03-25

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.44	0.72	47580	6351	41119	110
Day 1 forecast	-0.46	0.73	47580	6512	40962	106
Day 4 forecast	-0.47	0.74	47580	6611	40853	116
Day 7 forecast	-0.45	0.73	47580	6500	40967	113
Day 10 forecast	-0.51	0.76	47580	7081	40414	85

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.046	0.088	0.02	0.005	0.007
	c2	0	0.001	0.046	0.172	0.043	0.008	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.01	0.167	0.098	0.01	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.019	0.123	0.049	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.035	0.019
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.047	0.091	0.021	0.005	0.007
	c2	0	0.001	0.048	0.185	0.047	0.009	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.008	0.152	0.102	0.01	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.017	0.116	0.051	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.008	0.032	0.021
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.046	0.09	0.021	0.005	0.006
	c2	0	0.001	0.049	0.187	0.047	0.008	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.008	0.152	0.104	0.01	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.017	0.111	0.05	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.01	0.033	0.021
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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