Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-03-18

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.5   0.72   46782 7257 39420 105
Day 1 forecast -0.52   0.73   46782 7614 39065 103
Day 4 forecast -0.53   0.74   46782 7845 38836 101
Day 7 forecast -0.51   0.73   46782 7518 39157 107
Day 10 forecast -0.54   0.75   46782 8158 38515 109

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.058 0.091 0.022 0.006 0.005
c2 0 0.001 0.048 0.214 0.057 0.011 0.004
c3 0 0 0.004 0.108 0.112 0.012 0.004
c4 0 0 0 0.015 0.105 0.052 0.009
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.027 0.022
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.058 0.094 0.023 0.006 0.005
c2 0 0.001 0.047 0.22 0.059 0.01 0.004
c3 0 0 0.004 0.099 0.111 0.012 0.005
c4 0 0 0.001 0.016 0.103 0.054 0.01
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.024 0.021
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.057 0.093 0.023 0.006 0.005
c2 0 0.001 0.048 0.216 0.061 0.01 0.005
c3 0 0 0.005 0.103 0.108 0.013 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.016 0.104 0.054 0.011
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.023 0.02
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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