Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-03-11

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.48   0.73   43781 6723 36986 72
Day 1 forecast -0.49   0.73   43781 6843 36864 74
Day 4 forecast -0.5   0.74   43781 7034 36667 80
Day 7 forecast -0.48   0.73   43781 6635 37064 82
Day 10 forecast -0.49   0.74   43781 6774 36903 104

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.005 0.055 0.076 0.018 0.005 0.006
c2 0 0.001 0.074 0.228 0.059 0.01 0.004
c3 0 0 0.005 0.106 0.104 0.013 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.016 0.108 0.047 0.011
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.026 0.014
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.005 0.055 0.077 0.019 0.005 0.006
c2 0 0.001 0.074 0.228 0.063 0.01 0.003
c3 0 0 0.005 0.103 0.099 0.013 0.005
c4 0 0 0.001 0.016 0.109 0.051 0.01
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.022 0.014
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.005 0.053 0.075 0.018 0.005 0.006
c2 0 0.001 0.075 0.222 0.065 0.01 0.003
c3 0 0 0.006 0.11 0.096 0.014 0.005
c4 0 0 0.001 0.018 0.112 0.053 0.011
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.019 0.013
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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