Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-03-04

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.44   0.75   39834 6072 33670 92
Day 1 forecast -0.44   0.75   39834 6030 33703 101
Day 4 forecast -0.45   0.76   39834 6095 33636 103
Day 7 forecast -0.43   0.75   39834 5869 33854 111
Day 10 forecast -0.43   0.74   39834 5782 33945 107

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.058 0.079 0.021 0.005 0.006
c2 0 0.003 0.1 0.216 0.049 0.006 0.003
c3 0 0 0.007 0.119 0.083 0.01 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.02 0.114 0.04 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0 0.008 0.025 0.01
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.058 0.078 0.022 0.004 0.006
c2 0 0.003 0.099 0.213 0.047 0.006 0.004
c3 0 0 0.008 0.121 0.086 0.011 0.003
c4 0 0 0.001 0.02 0.112 0.04 0.008
c5 0 0 0 0 0.008 0.024 0.009
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.057 0.076 0.021 0.004 0.005
c2 0 0.003 0.099 0.208 0.046 0.006 0.003
c3 0 0 0.01 0.127 0.084 0.011 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.022 0.116 0.041 0.008
c5 0 0 0 0 0.008 0.023 0.009
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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