Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-02-04

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.37	0.67	38797	5338	33364	95
Day 1 forecast	-0.36	0.67	38797	5416	33281	100
Day 4 forecast	-0.36	0.68	38797	5486	33215	96
Day 7 forecast	-0.34	0.67	38797	5311	33359	127
Day 10 forecast	-0.36	0.69	38797	5789	32912	96

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.01	0.103	0.076	0.016	0.005	0.004
	c2	0	0.003	0.152	0.169	0.026	0.005	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.142	0.062	0.007	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.038	0.106	0.026	0.004
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.008	0.015	0.006
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.01	0.099	0.076	0.016	0.005	0.004
	c2	0	0.004	0.154	0.164	0.026	0.006	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.01	0.141	0.059	0.008	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.043	0.106	0.026	0.005
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.01	0.014	0.006
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.01	0.092	0.075	0.016	0.005	0.004
	c2	0	0.004	0.158	0.16	0.026	0.006	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.013	0.141	0.056	0.008	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.048	0.107	0.025	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.012	0.014	0.005
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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