Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-02-04

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.37   0.67   38797 5338 33364 95
Day 1 forecast -0.36   0.67   38797 5416 33281 100
Day 4 forecast -0.36   0.68   38797 5486 33215 96
Day 7 forecast -0.34   0.67   38797 5311 33359 127
Day 10 forecast -0.36   0.69   38797 5789 32912 96

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.01 0.103 0.076 0.016 0.005 0.004
c2 0 0.003 0.152 0.169 0.026 0.005 0.003
c3 0 0 0.009 0.142 0.062 0.007 0.002
c4 0 0 0.001 0.038 0.106 0.026 0.004
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.008 0.015 0.006
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.01 0.099 0.076 0.016 0.005 0.004
c2 0 0.004 0.154 0.164 0.026 0.006 0.003
c3 0 0 0.01 0.141 0.059 0.008 0.002
c4 0 0 0.001 0.043 0.106 0.026 0.005
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.01 0.014 0.006
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.01 0.092 0.075 0.016 0.005 0.004
c2 0 0.004 0.158 0.16 0.026 0.006 0.003
c3 0 0 0.013 0.141 0.056 0.008 0.002
c4 0 0 0.002 0.048 0.107 0.025 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.012 0.014 0.005
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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