Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-01-28

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.37   0.7   37633 5073 32460 100
Day 1 forecast -0.36   0.7   37633 5141 32394 98
Day 4 forecast -0.37   0.71   37633 5240 32289 104
Day 7 forecast -0.35   0.7   37633 5055 32473 105
Day 10 forecast -0.39   0.73   37633 5956 31586 91

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.013 0.135 0.083 0.015 0.003 0.006
c2 0 0.002 0.138 0.15 0.02 0.004 0.003
c3 0 0 0.011 0.132 0.057 0.007 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.047 0.1 0.031 0.005
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.011 0.013 0.006
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.012 0.126 0.083 0.015 0.003 0.005
c2 0 0.003 0.145 0.15 0.021 0.005 0.003
c3 0 0 0.012 0.128 0.057 0.008 0.005
c4 0 0 0.002 0.05 0.098 0.031 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0.003 0.013 0.012 0.004
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.012 0.113 0.079 0.014 0.003 0.006
c2 0 0.004 0.158 0.15 0.023 0.005 0.002
c3 0 0 0.012 0.124 0.053 0.009 0.005
c4 0 0 0.002 0.057 0.1 0.03 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0.003 0.014 0.012 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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