Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-01-21

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.41	0.81	36169	4862	31199	108
Day 1 forecast	-0.42	0.82	36169	5066	31001	102
Day 4 forecast	-0.42	0.82	36169	5229	30836	104
Day 7 forecast	-0.41	0.82	36169	5106	30948	115
Day 10 forecast	-0.42	0.83	36169	5578	30497	94

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.012	0.148	0.081	0.015	0.004	0.008
	c2	0	0.003	0.127	0.137	0.019	0.004	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.115	0.078	0.012	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.039	0.105	0.039	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.01	0.014	0.004
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.012	0.146	0.084	0.015	0.004	0.008
	c2	0	0.003	0.129	0.136	0.021	0.005	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.11	0.078	0.019	0.005
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.043	0.102	0.034	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.011	0.012	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.012	0.13	0.08	0.016	0.004	0.008
	c2	0	0.003	0.143	0.137	0.023	0.005	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.011	0.107	0.073	0.021	0.005
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.049	0.103	0.031	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.012	0.012	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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