Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-01-07

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.36	0.68	33898	5255	28544	99
Day 1 forecast	-0.35	0.68	33898	5276	28520	102
Day 4 forecast	-0.35	0.69	33898	5420	28375	103
Day 7 forecast	-0.34	0.68	33898	4974	28810	114
Day 10 forecast	-0.34	0.7	33898	5649	28137	112

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.029	0.208	0.09	0.015	0.002	0.007
	c2	0	0.002	0.088	0.097	0.015	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.011	0.127	0.074	0.012	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.036	0.119	0.023	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.018	0.014	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.027	0.2	0.089	0.016	0.002	0.007
	c2	0	0.003	0.096	0.095	0.015	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.012	0.128	0.072	0.011	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.038	0.119	0.022	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.02	0.015	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0.001	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.026	0.186	0.082	0.015	0.002	0.007
	c2	0	0.004	0.109	0.097	0.016	0.003	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.012	0.125	0.068	0.011	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.045	0.121	0.023	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.021	0.014	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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