Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-01-07

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.36   0.68   33898 5255 28544 99
Day 1 forecast -0.35   0.68   33898 5276 28520 102
Day 4 forecast -0.35   0.69   33898 5420 28375 103
Day 7 forecast -0.34   0.68   33898 4974 28810 114
Day 10 forecast -0.34   0.7   33898 5649 28137 112

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.029 0.208 0.09 0.015 0.002 0.007
c2 0 0.002 0.088 0.097 0.015 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0 0.011 0.127 0.074 0.012 0.003
c4 0 0 0.001 0.036 0.119 0.023 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.018 0.014 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.027 0.2 0.089 0.016 0.002 0.007
c2 0 0.003 0.096 0.095 0.015 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0 0.012 0.128 0.072 0.011 0.003
c4 0 0 0.001 0.038 0.119 0.022 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.02 0.015 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.026 0.186 0.082 0.015 0.002 0.007
c2 0 0.004 0.109 0.097 0.016 0.003 0.001
c3 0 0 0.012 0.125 0.068 0.011 0.003
c4 0 0 0.002 0.045 0.121 0.023 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.021 0.014 0.002
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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