Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-12-31

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.29	0.69	31365	4726	26476	163
Day 1 forecast	-0.29	0.7	31365	4817	26377	171
Day 4 forecast	-0.29	0.7	31365	4996	26197	172
Day 7 forecast	-0.27	0.69	31365	4595	26587	183
Day 10 forecast	-0.3	0.72	31365	5339	25832	194

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.038	0.227	0.077	0.017	0.003	0.005
	c2	0	0.003	0.083	0.067	0.009	0.001	0.001
	c3	0	0.001	0.02	0.145	0.052	0.004	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.058	0.123	0.01	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.027	0.021	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.038	0.22	0.077	0.017	0.004	0.005
	c2	0	0.004	0.088	0.069	0.012	0.001	0.001
	c3	0	0.001	0.019	0.135	0.046	0.004	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.004	0.065	0.122	0.01	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.03	0.021	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.036	0.206	0.076	0.017	0.003	0.005
	c2	0	0.006	0.1	0.069	0.014	0.001	0.001
	c3	0	0.001	0.022	0.13	0.043	0.004	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.004	0.072	0.123	0.01	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.031	0.021	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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