Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-12-24

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.3	0.66	31327	5103	26084	140
Day 1 forecast	-0.3	0.66	31327	5191	25992	144
Day 4 forecast	-0.31	0.67	31327	5331	25849	147
Day 7 forecast	-0.29	0.65	31327	5066	26113	148
Day 10 forecast	-0.36	0.69	31327	5794	25430	103

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.037	0.226	0.075	0.016	0.003	0.004
	c2	0	0.002	0.083	0.074	0.012	0.002	0
	c3	0	0	0.021	0.126	0.045	0.004	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.058	0.138	0.013	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.025	0.025	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.036	0.222	0.073	0.016	0.003	0.004
	c2	0	0.003	0.087	0.08	0.012	0.002	0
	c3	0	0	0.02	0.118	0.044	0.004	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.062	0.14	0.014	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.023	0.024	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.035	0.216	0.07	0.016	0.004	0.004
	c2	0	0.003	0.092	0.082	0.012	0.001	0
	c3	0	0	0.022	0.115	0.045	0.004	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.065	0.139	0.014	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.024	0.024	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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