Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-12-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.36	0.69	30905	5433	25401	71
Day 1 forecast	-0.38	0.7	30905	5615	25221	69
Day 4 forecast	-0.39	0.7	30905	5842	24995	68
Day 7 forecast	-0.38	0.69	30905	5417	25420	68
Day 10 forecast	-0.46	0.74	30905	6624	24218	63

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.045	0.221	0.074	0.014	0.002	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.081	0.083	0.013	0.003	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.014	0.119	0.058	0.006	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.044	0.154	0.022	0.003
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.012	0.018	0.006
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.045	0.222	0.074	0.014	0.002	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.081	0.091	0.014	0.003	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.013	0.112	0.063	0.006	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.042	0.154	0.024	0.005
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.015	0.004
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.045	0.218	0.072	0.013	0.002	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.083	0.097	0.015	0.003	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.015	0.108	0.065	0.006	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.043	0.152	0.026	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.014	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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