Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-12-10

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.41	0.74	29762	6113	23574	75
Day 1 forecast	-0.44	0.76	29762	6365	23323	74
Day 4 forecast	-0.45	0.77	29762	6605	23082	75
Day 7 forecast	-0.44	0.75	29762	6194	23492	76
Day 10 forecast	-0.51	0.8	29762	7249	22440	73

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.052	0.218	0.074	0.015	0.002	0.004
	c2	0	0.002	0.079	0.1	0.014	0.003	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.01	0.108	0.069	0.005	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.037	0.15	0.025	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.006	0.01	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.052	0.223	0.075	0.015	0.002	0.004
	c2	0	0.002	0.074	0.114	0.018	0.004	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.01	0.097	0.076	0.006	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.034	0.143	0.03	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.003	0.004	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.052	0.221	0.076	0.015	0.002	0.004
	c2	0	0.002	0.075	0.114	0.019	0.004	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.011	0.096	0.076	0.006	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.034	0.143	0.032	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.002	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh Fri Dec 25 01:11:13 UTC 2020 on arcmfcval