Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-12-03

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.37	0.7	27127	5782	21253	92
Day 1 forecast	-0.39	0.71	27127	6026	21009	92
Day 4 forecast	-0.4	0.72	27127	6209	20828	90
Day 7 forecast	-0.39	0.71	27127	5884	21143	100
Day 10 forecast	-0.48	0.76	27127	7087	19963	77

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.062	0.222	0.066	0.011	0.003	0.003
	c2	0	0.002	0.09	0.099	0.01	0.001	0
	c3	0	0.001	0.019	0.125	0.07	0.003	0
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.046	0.139	0.015	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.003	0.002	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.063	0.228	0.073	0.012	0.003	0.003
	c2	0	0.002	0.087	0.098	0.012	0.001	0
	c3	0	0.001	0.016	0.119	0.086	0.003	0
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.045	0.122	0.016	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.001	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.062	0.229	0.076	0.012	0.003	0.003
	c2	0	0.002	0.087	0.098	0.013	0.001	0.001
	c3	0	0.001	0.015	0.114	0.089	0.003	0
	c4	0	0	0.004	0.048	0.119	0.016	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.001	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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