Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-11-26

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.42   0.66   26130 6374 19683 73
Day 1 forecast -0.45   0.68   26130 6638 19426 66
Day 4 forecast -0.46   0.69   26130 6842 19226 62
Day 7 forecast -0.45   0.67   26130 6513 19542 75
Day 10 forecast -0.51   0.72   26130 7685 18394 51

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.075 0.227 0.074 0.013 0.002 0.003
c2 0 0.002 0.078 0.091 0.012 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0.001 0.013 0.149 0.099 0.004 0
c4 0 0 0.001 0.037 0.103 0.011 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.075 0.234 0.078 0.013 0.002 0.003
c2 0 0.002 0.072 0.099 0.016 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0.001 0.012 0.142 0.104 0.004 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.032 0.093 0.011 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.075 0.235 0.077 0.014 0.002 0.003
c2 0 0.002 0.07 0.106 0.017 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0.001 0.012 0.135 0.103 0.004 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.032 0.092 0.011 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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