Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-11-19

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.47   0.87   23821 6610 17140 71
Day 1 forecast -0.48   0.88   23821 6862 16892 67
Day 4 forecast -0.49   0.88   23821 7009 16748 64
Day 7 forecast -0.48   0.87   23821 6697 17058 66
Day 10 forecast -0.7   0.98   23821 8803 14989 29

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.069 0.243 0.066 0.012 0.003 0.007
c2 0 0.002 0.084 0.095 0.01 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0 0.019 0.188 0.064 0.003 0
c4 0 0 0.001 0.03 0.082 0.017 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.069 0.244 0.068 0.012 0.003 0.007
c2 0 0.002 0.083 0.098 0.011 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0 0.018 0.184 0.069 0.004 0
c4 0 0 0.001 0.028 0.076 0.015 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.069 0.244 0.068 0.012 0.003 0.007
c2 0 0.001 0.083 0.1 0.013 0.003 0.001
c3 0 0 0.019 0.184 0.068 0.004 0
c4 0 0 0.001 0.027 0.075 0.016 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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