Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-11-19

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.47	0.87	23821	6610	17140	71
Day 1 forecast	-0.48	0.88	23821	6862	16892	67
Day 4 forecast	-0.49	0.88	23821	7009	16748	64
Day 7 forecast	-0.48	0.87	23821	6697	17058	66
Day 10 forecast	-0.7	0.98	23821	8803	14989	29

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.069	0.243	0.066	0.012	0.003	0.007
	c2	0	0.002	0.084	0.095	0.01	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.019	0.188	0.064	0.003	0
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.03	0.082	0.017	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.069	0.244	0.068	0.012	0.003	0.007
	c2	0	0.002	0.083	0.098	0.011	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.018	0.184	0.069	0.004	0
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.028	0.076	0.015	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.069	0.244	0.068	0.012	0.003	0.007
	c2	0	0.001	0.083	0.1	0.013	0.003	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.019	0.184	0.068	0.004	0
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.027	0.075	0.016	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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