Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-11-12

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.47   0.85   21378 5242 16094 42
Day 1 forecast -0.56   0.89   21378 5721 15621 36
Day 4 forecast -0.6   0.91   21378 6119 15222 37
Day 7 forecast -0.59   0.9   21378 5864 15476 38
Day 10 forecast -0.83   1.07   21378 11277 10046 55

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0
c1 0 0.065 0.224 0.064 0.013 0.002 0.004
c2 0 0.001 0.141 0.137 0.009 0.001 0
c3 0 0.001 0.019 0.173 0.08 0.004 0.001
c4 0 0 0 0.006 0.041 0.012 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0
c1 0 0.064 0.254 0.079 0.014 0.002 0.004
c2 0 0.001 0.116 0.181 0.014 0.001 0
c3 0 0.001 0.014 0.12 0.111 0.015 0.001
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.001 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0.001 0 0.001 0.001 0
c1 0 0.063 0.264 0.088 0.015 0.002 0.004
c2 0 0.002 0.106 0.192 0.024 0.001 0
c3 0 0.001 0.015 0.1 0.103 0.016 0.001
c4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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