Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-11-05

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.57   0.72   19158 5832 13296 30
Day 1 forecast -0.67   0.81   19158 8033 11089 36
Day 4 forecast -0.72   0.85   19158 9097 10023 38
Day 7 forecast -0.7   0.83   19158 8670 10453 35
Day 10 forecast -0.72   0.86   19158 9142 9986 30

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.069 0.319 0.099 0.015 0.003 0.001
c2 0 0.002 0.089 0.191 0.059 0.002 0
c3 0 0.001 0.031 0.066 0.044 0.005 0.001
c4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0.001 0.001 0.002 0 0 0
c1 0 0.069 0.364 0.179 0.041 0.004 0.001
c2 0 0.002 0.045 0.126 0.053 0.004 0.001
c3 0 0.001 0.028 0.05 0.025 0.003 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.07 0.364 0.194 0.049 0.004 0.001
c2 0 0.002 0.046 0.116 0.048 0.003 0.001
c3 0 0.001 0.026 0.045 0.021 0.003 0
c4 0 0 0.002 0.002 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh Fri Nov 20 13:46:21 UTC 2020 on arcmfcval

 
See Met Privacy