Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-11-05

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.57	0.72	19158	5832	13296	30
Day 1 forecast	-0.67	0.81	19158	8033	11089	36
Day 4 forecast	-0.72	0.85	19158	9097	10023	38
Day 7 forecast	-0.7	0.83	19158	8670	10453	35
Day 10 forecast	-0.72	0.86	19158	9142	9986	30

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0.001	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.069	0.319	0.099	0.015	0.003	0.001
	c2	0	0.002	0.089	0.191	0.059	0.002	0
	c3	0	0.001	0.031	0.066	0.044	0.005	0.001
	c4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0.001	0.001	0.002	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.069	0.364	0.179	0.041	0.004	0.001
	c2	0	0.002	0.045	0.126	0.053	0.004	0.001
	c3	0	0.001	0.028	0.05	0.025	0.003	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0	0
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.07	0.364	0.194	0.049	0.004	0.001
	c2	0	0.002	0.046	0.116	0.048	0.003	0.001
	c3	0	0.001	0.026	0.045	0.021	0.003	0
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.002	0	0	0
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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