Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-10-29

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.63   0.79   17422 7555 9804 63
Day 1 forecast -0.62   0.78   17422 7379 9972 71
Day 4 forecast -0.62   0.79   17422 7501 9848 73
Day 7 forecast -0.61   0.77   17422 7110 10244 68
Day 10 forecast -0.64   0.8   17422 7803 9545 74

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.09 0.398 0.167 0.042 0.003 0.001
c2 0 0.003 0.069 0.098 0.025 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0.001 0.04 0.045 0.009 0.002 0
c4 0 0 0.002 0.001 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.09 0.396 0.163 0.04 0.003 0.002
c2 0 0.004 0.071 0.103 0.028 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0.001 0.039 0.044 0.008 0.002 0
c4 0 0 0.003 0.001 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.09 0.396 0.16 0.039 0.003 0.002
c2 0 0.004 0.071 0.105 0.029 0.002 0.001
c3 0 0.001 0.039 0.045 0.009 0.002 0
c4 0 0 0.002 0.001 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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