Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2020-10-22
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.55 | 0.72 | 16216 | 6630 | 9423 | 163 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.54 | 0.71 | 16216 | 6497 | 9554 | 165 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.54 | 0.72 | 16216 | 6581 | 9469 | 166 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.53 | 0.71 | 16216 | 6384 | 9671 | 161 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.55 | 0.73 | 16216 | 6752 | 9310 | 154 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.106 | 0.426 | 0.144 | 0.025 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.103 | 0.073 | 0.012 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.048 | 0.035 | 0.006 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.107 | 0.422 | 0.139 | 0.024 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.104 | 0.079 | 0.014 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.049 | 0.034 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.106 | 0.421 | 0.138 | 0.024 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.107 | 0.08 | 0.015 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.049 | 0.034 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.003 | 0.002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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