Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-10-08

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.43   0.66   10030 3322 6374 334
Day 1 forecast -0.42   0.65   10030 3220 6434 376
Day 4 forecast -0.42   0.65   10030 3243 6411 376
Day 7 forecast -0.42   0.64   10030 3155 6557 318
Day 10 forecast -0.43   0.66   10030 3265 6432 333

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.119 0.411 0.145 0.006 0 0
c2 0 0.012 0.132 0.04 0.003 0.001 0
c3 0 0.016 0.077 0.028 0.003 0 0
c4 0 0.001 0.005 0.001 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.119 0.405 0.141 0.006 0 0
c2 0 0.011 0.139 0.045 0.003 0.001 0
c3 0 0.017 0.076 0.028 0.002 0 0
c4 0 0.001 0.005 0.001 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.119 0.399 0.14 0.006 0 0
c2 0 0.013 0.146 0.045 0.003 0.001 0
c3 0 0.015 0.077 0.028 0.003 0 0
c4 0 0 0.004 0.001 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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