Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-10-01

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.4   0.65   3677 1119 2423 135
Day 1 forecast -0.39   0.64   3677 1090 2452 135
Day 4 forecast -0.39   0.65   3677 1093 2454 130
Day 7 forecast -0.39   0.64   3677 1080 2472 125
Day 10 forecast -0.4   0.64   3677 1083 2478 116

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.126 0.395 0.152 0.01 0 0.001
c2 0 0.02 0.113 0.053 0.001 0.001 0
c3 0 0.008 0.082 0.031 0 0 0
c4 0 0.001 0.005 0.001 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.125 0.384 0.148 0.01 0 0.001
c2 0 0.021 0.125 0.058 0.001 0.001 0
c3 0 0.007 0.079 0.03 0 0 0
c4 0 0.002 0.007 0.001 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.002 0.002 0 0
c1 0 0.126 0.386 0.147 0.008 0 0.001
c2 0 0.021 0.125 0.056 0.001 0.001 0
c3 0 0.007 0.081 0.031 0 0 0
c4 0 0.001 0.004 0 0 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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