Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-04-09

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.88	1.18	43460	17336	26031	93
Day 1 forecast	-0.87	1.17	43460	16904	26465	91
Day 4 forecast	-0.87	1.17	43460	17007	26361	92
Day 7 forecast	-0.86	1.16	43460	16542	26823	95
Day 10 forecast	-0.85	1.15	43460	16340	27038	82

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.055	0.149	0.061	0.02	0.01
	c2	0	0.001	0.01	0.152	0.105	0.046	0.01
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.059	0.085	0.045	0.005
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.014	0.034	0.055
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.013	0.039
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.01

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.054	0.146	0.061	0.02	0.01
	c2	0	0.001	0.011	0.157	0.106	0.046	0.009
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.058	0.084	0.045	0.005
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.015	0.035	0.055
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.014	0.04
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.011

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.054	0.145	0.058	0.019	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.011	0.158	0.107	0.046	0.01
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.057	0.086	0.044	0.005
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.014	0.036	0.054
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.014	0.041
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.011

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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