Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-04-02

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.81	1.07	28388	10212	18125	51
Day 1 forecast	-0.81	1.06	28388	10035	18302	51
Day 4 forecast	-0.81	1.06	28388	10060	18279	49
Day 7 forecast	-0.8	1.05	28388	9849	18492	47
Day 10 forecast	-0.8	1.05	28388	9858	18481	49

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.044	0.114	0.048	0.018	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.017	0.176	0.11	0.043	0.009
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.067	0.103	0.042	0.009
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.018	0.044	0.055
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.018	0.031
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.009

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.043	0.112	0.048	0.017	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.018	0.18	0.11	0.044	0.009
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.065	0.102	0.042	0.008
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.019	0.044	0.056
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.018	0.031
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.009

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.044	0.111	0.046	0.016	0.008
	c2	0	0.001	0.018	0.177	0.11	0.044	0.01
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.068	0.104	0.041	0.008
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.019	0.044	0.055
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.019	0.032
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.01

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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