Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-03-26

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.84	1.09	41386	15407	25912	67
Day 1 forecast	-0.83	1.08	41386	15166	26153	67
Day 4 forecast	-0.84	1.08	41386	15256	26064	66
Day 7 forecast	-0.82	1.07	41386	14868	26449	69
Day 10 forecast	-0.83	1.08	41386	14877	26448	61

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.052	0.141	0.059	0.018	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.018	0.19	0.117	0.034	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.059	0.086	0.039	0.01
	c4	0	0	0	0.003	0.013	0.034	0.052
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.012	0.027
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.052	0.139	0.058	0.018	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.018	0.193	0.117	0.034	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.057	0.086	0.039	0.009
	c4	0	0	0	0.003	0.013	0.034	0.053
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.012	0.027
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.051	0.14	0.057	0.017	0.008
	c2	0	0.001	0.018	0.19	0.114	0.034	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.059	0.087	0.038	0.009
	c4	0	0	0	0.003	0.016	0.035	0.052
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.013	0.028
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.008

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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