Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-03-19

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.84	1.1	42304	17272	24954	78
Day 1 forecast	-0.84	1.09	42304	17124	25108	72
Day 4 forecast	-0.84	1.09	42304	17239	24996	69
Day 7 forecast	-0.82	1.08	42304	16670	25564	70
Day 10 forecast	-0.84	1.09	42304	16882	25349	73

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.065	0.149	0.064	0.018	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.042	0.179	0.107	0.026	0.009
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.051	0.064	0.046	0.011
	c4	0	0	0	0.005	0.011	0.036	0.049
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.013	0.02
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.004

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.064	0.148	0.064	0.018	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.043	0.183	0.108	0.027	0.008
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.048	0.063	0.046	0.011
	c4	0	0	0	0.005	0.011	0.036	0.049
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.013	0.02
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.004

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.064	0.148	0.063	0.018	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.043	0.181	0.105	0.026	0.008
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.051	0.065	0.044	0.01
	c4	0	0	0	0.005	0.012	0.038	0.05
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.014	0.021
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.003	0.004

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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