Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-03-12

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.79	1.05	41916	16321	25503	92
Day 1 forecast	-0.79	1.04	41916	16206	25621	89
Day 4 forecast	-0.8	1.05	41916	16329	25500	87
Day 7 forecast	-0.78	1.03	41916	15739	26087	90
Day 10 forecast	-0.79	1.04	41916	16260	25563	93

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.005	0.069	0.156	0.063	0.014	0.007
	c2	0	0.002	0.066	0.194	0.098	0.025	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.042	0.053	0.044	0.005
	c4	0	0	0	0.005	0.015	0.045	0.037
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.011	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.005	0.068	0.155	0.063	0.014	0.007
	c2	0	0.002	0.067	0.196	0.099	0.024	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.008	0.042	0.053	0.045	0.005
	c4	0	0	0	0.005	0.015	0.044	0.037
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.011	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.005	0.068	0.151	0.061	0.013	0.007
	c2	0	0.002	0.066	0.197	0.098	0.024	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.044	0.054	0.042	0.005
	c4	0	0	0	0.006	0.016	0.047	0.037
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.011	0.018
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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