Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-03-05

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.78	1.06	40872	15532	25232	108
Day 1 forecast	-0.78	1.05	40872	15437	25329	106
Day 4 forecast	-0.79	1.06	40872	15580	25186	106
Day 7 forecast	-0.77	1.04	40872	15133	25630	109
Day 10 forecast	-0.78	1.05	40872	15400	25364	108

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.006	0.07	0.158	0.054	0.013	0.006
	c2	0	0.002	0.077	0.203	0.096	0.023	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.045	0.052	0.046	0.01
	c4	0	0	0	0.005	0.017	0.042	0.029
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.008	0.013
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.006	0.069	0.155	0.054	0.013	0.006
	c2	0	0.002	0.078	0.205	0.097	0.022	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.045	0.052	0.046	0.01
	c4	0	0	0	0.005	0.017	0.042	0.029
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.009	0.014
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.006	0.068	0.154	0.053	0.013	0.006
	c2	0	0.002	0.078	0.204	0.096	0.022	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.046	0.053	0.045	0.009
	c4	0	0	0	0.006	0.018	0.042	0.029
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.009	0.015
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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