Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-03-05

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.78   1.06   40872 15532 25232 108
Day 1 forecast -0.78   1.05   40872 15437 25329 106
Day 4 forecast -0.79   1.06   40872 15580 25186 106
Day 7 forecast -0.77   1.04   40872 15133 25630 109
Day 10 forecast -0.78   1.05   40872 15400 25364 108

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.07 0.158 0.054 0.013 0.006
c2 0 0.002 0.077 0.203 0.096 0.023 0.005
c3 0 0 0.006 0.045 0.052 0.046 0.01
c4 0 0 0 0.005 0.017 0.042 0.029
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.008 0.013
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.069 0.155 0.054 0.013 0.006
c2 0 0.002 0.078 0.205 0.097 0.022 0.005
c3 0 0 0.006 0.045 0.052 0.046 0.01
c4 0 0 0 0.005 0.017 0.042 0.029
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.009 0.014
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.068 0.154 0.053 0.013 0.006
c2 0 0.002 0.078 0.204 0.096 0.022 0.005
c3 0 0 0.006 0.046 0.053 0.045 0.009
c4 0 0 0 0.006 0.018 0.042 0.029
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.007 0.009 0.015
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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