Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-01-30

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.76	0.97	37192	12858	24278	56
Day 1 forecast	-0.75	0.97	37192	12780	24357	55
Day 4 forecast	-0.76	0.97	37192	12939	24200	53
Day 7 forecast	-0.74	0.96	37192	12230	24904	58
Day 10 forecast	-0.76	0.97	37192	12667	24477	48

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.015	0.225	0.168	0.049	0.011	0.009
	c2	0	0.003	0.076	0.146	0.065	0.006	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.034	0.077	0.062	0.011
	c4	0	0	0	0.006	0.013	0.007	0.003
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.001	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.015	0.227	0.168	0.049	0.011	0.009
	c2	0	0.003	0.074	0.146	0.065	0.007	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.034	0.076	0.061	0.011
	c4	0	0	0	0.006	0.015	0.008	0.003
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.001	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.015	0.218	0.16	0.048	0.011	0.008
	c2	0	0.003	0.083	0.153	0.064	0.006	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.035	0.075	0.059	0.011
	c4	0	0	0	0.007	0.017	0.01	0.003
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.001	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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