Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-01-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.78   0.94   36063 13460 22575 28
Day 1 forecast -0.78   0.94   36063 13359 22675 29
Day 4 forecast -0.78   0.95   36063 13558 22475 30
Day 7 forecast -0.76   0.92   36063 12814 23217 32
Day 10 forecast -0.78   0.94   36063 13322 22719 22

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.017 0.234 0.195 0.054 0.008 0.005
c2 0 0.003 0.055 0.148 0.056 0.006 0.001
c3 0 0 0.002 0.033 0.086 0.062 0.013
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.006 0.005 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001
c1 0 0.017 0.233 0.194 0.053 0.008 0.005
c2 0 0.003 0.056 0.149 0.056 0.006 0.001
c3 0 0 0.002 0.033 0.086 0.063 0.013
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.006 0.006 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001
c1 0 0.017 0.225 0.186 0.052 0.008 0.005
c2 0 0.003 0.063 0.155 0.055 0.005 0.001
c3 0 0 0.002 0.034 0.086 0.062 0.013
c4 0 0 0 0.003 0.007 0.007 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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