Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-01-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.78   0.93   35633 13984 21605 44
Day 1 forecast -0.78   0.93   35633 13903 21686 44
Day 4 forecast -0.78   0.93   35633 14095 21494 44
Day 7 forecast -0.76   0.91   35633 13339 22242 52
Day 10 forecast -0.78   0.93   35633 14039 21554 40

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001
c1 0 0.02 0.267 0.215 0.053 0.01 0.004
c2 0 0.001 0.03 0.13 0.061 0.007 0.001
c3 0 0 0.002 0.032 0.084 0.053 0.012
c4 0 0 0 0.004 0.006 0.004 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0 0.001 0.001 0.001
c1 0 0.02 0.265 0.217 0.054 0.01 0.004
c2 0 0.001 0.031 0.128 0.059 0.006 0.001
c3 0 0 0.002 0.032 0.086 0.054 0.012
c4 0 0 0 0.004 0.005 0.003 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0 0.001 0.001 0.001
c1 0 0.02 0.259 0.208 0.052 0.01 0.004
c2 0 0.001 0.037 0.134 0.056 0.005 0.001
c3 0 0 0.003 0.035 0.09 0.054 0.011
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.006 0.004 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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