Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-01-02

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.79   0.92   33698 13687 19963 48
Day 1 forecast -0.79   0.91   33698 13648 20002 48
Day 4 forecast -0.8   0.92   33698 13906 19745 47
Day 7 forecast -0.77   0.9   33698 12937 20709 52
Day 10 forecast -0.8   0.92   33698 13953 19700 45

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.037 0.289 0.228 0.055 0.008 0.004
c2 0 0 0.025 0.11 0.07 0.009 0.001
c3 0 0 0.003 0.035 0.066 0.042 0.01
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.004 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.037 0.288 0.228 0.055 0.008 0.004
c2 0 0 0.026 0.108 0.07 0.011 0.002
c3 0 0 0.003 0.036 0.067 0.039 0.009
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.004 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.037 0.284 0.221 0.054 0.007 0.004
c2 0 0 0.029 0.114 0.068 0.009 0.001
c3 0 0 0.003 0.038 0.07 0.041 0.01
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.004 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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