Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-12-26

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.8   0.9   31298 13883 17370 45
Day 1 forecast -0.8   0.9   31298 13837 17417 44
Day 4 forecast -0.8   0.9   31298 14087 17166 45
Day 7 forecast -0.78   0.88   31298 13221 18031 46
Day 10 forecast -0.81   0.91   31298 14218 17036 44

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.049 0.304 0.224 0.055 0.007 0.002
c2 0 0 0.018 0.096 0.074 0.01 0.001
c3 0 0 0.002 0.036 0.065 0.041 0.007
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.049 0.303 0.224 0.055 0.007 0.002
c2 0 0 0.018 0.096 0.074 0.011 0.001
c3 0 0 0.002 0.037 0.065 0.039 0.007
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.049 0.3 0.216 0.054 0.007 0.002
c2 0 0 0.021 0.103 0.071 0.01 0.001
c3 0 0 0.002 0.038 0.069 0.042 0.007
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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