Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-12-19

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.86   0.97   31026 15834 15167 25
Day 1 forecast -0.86   0.96   31026 15693 15309 24
Day 4 forecast -0.87   0.97   31026 15911 15094 21
Day 7 forecast -0.84   0.95   31026 15137 15862 27
Day 10 forecast -0.87   0.97   31026 15979 15022 25

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.051 0.284 0.241 0.071 0.01 0.002
c2 0 0 0.009 0.076 0.091 0.015 0.001
c3 0 0 0.003 0.035 0.055 0.041 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.003 0.001 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.051 0.284 0.239 0.07 0.009 0.002
c2 0 0 0.009 0.076 0.092 0.017 0.001
c3 0 0 0.004 0.036 0.056 0.039 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.003 0.001 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.051 0.283 0.235 0.068 0.009 0.002
c2 0 0 0.009 0.08 0.091 0.016 0.001
c3 0 0 0.003 0.037 0.059 0.04 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.003 0.001 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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